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FUTURE SIGNALS

A futures thinking method

Futures Triangle

Balance the pull of the future, the push of the present and the weight of history.

Draft, to be confirmed by Dr. John.

Three forces act on any future at once. The pull is the image of the future drawing people towards it. The push is what is acting on them right now. The weight is everything history makes hard to move. Mapping all three tells you which one is actually holding a decision still — and that is rarely the one people argue about.

How it works

  1. Pull — the image of the future drawing us forward.
  2. Push — the forces acting on us right now.
  3. Weight — what history makes hard to move.

You’ll try it on why a thirty-year problem is so much harder to act on than a thirty-day one.

Module 5 · Psychology of Future Minds
Futures Triangle

Worked topic: acting on climate change, a thirty-year problem. Weigh each force and watch where the plausible future settles.

PULL OF THE FUTUREPUSH OF THE PRESENTWEIGHT OF HISTORYPLAUSIBLE FUTURE
Pull of the futureWhich images of the future draw us forward?
  • A net-zero Dubai by 2050
  • Clean, quiet electric cities
Push of the presentWhich drivers and trends are pushing change now?
  • Cheaper solar power
  • Record summer heat
  • Youth climate activism
Weight of historyWhat holds things back?
  • Economies built on oil
  • Car-centred city design
  • Short political cycles

Reading the triangle

Two forces are evenly matched. Expect a contested, slow-moving future until one gives way.

Method source: Sohail Inayatullah, Six Pillars: Futures Thinking for Transforming, Foresight (2008)

All six methods