A futures thinking method
Futures Wheel
Map the first, second and third-order consequences of a change.
Draft, to be confirmed by Dr. John.Start with one change in the centre of a page. Ring out the things that follow directly from it, then ring out the things that follow from those. By the third ring you are usually a long way from where you started — and that is the point: most of what a breakthrough changes is never the thing it was built to change.
How it works
- Put one change at the centre.
- Ring out what follows directly from it.
- Then ring out what follows from those.
You’ll try it on AlphaFold solving protein structures — and what that sets off three rings out.
Module 1 · AI and Science: AlphaFoldPositiveNegativeMixed or uncertain
The change selected
AlphaFold predicts protein structures in minutes
4 direct consequences mapped. Ask of every node: if this happens, what happens next?
Method source: Jerome C. Glenn, 1971