A futures thinking method
Systems Archetypes
Recognise recurring feedback patterns in complex systems, such as limits to growth or fixes that backfire.
Draft, to be confirmed by Dr. John.Complex systems go wrong in a surprisingly small number of ways, and those ways repeat. Growth runs into a limit it created itself. A fix relieves the symptom and feeds the cause. Once you can recognise the pattern, you stop looking for someone to blame and start looking for the loop — and for the delay inside it, which is usually where the surprise comes from.
How it works
- Find the loop, not the villain.
- Ask where the delay sits.
- Check whether the fix feeds the problem.
You’ll try it on an economy where the sensible-looking fix makes the problem worse.
Module 3 · Economics of ComplexityA quick fix eases the symptom, then quietly makes it worse after a delay.
Play the story link by link
Step through the loop to see how the pattern unfolds over time.
Method source: Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline (1990); causal loop notation after Jay Forrester