Module 03 of 6
Economics of Complexity
Economies as evolving, interconnected systems rather than predictable machines.
Draft, to be confirmed by Dr. John.What you’ll do.
- Draw a feedback loop instead of a straight line of cause and effect.
- Spot limits to growth, and fixes that backfire.
- Find where the delay sits, which is usually where the surprise comes from.
The method
Systems Archetypes
Complex systems go wrong in a surprisingly small number of ways, and those ways repeat. Growth runs into a limit it created itself. A fix relieves the symptom and feeds the cause. Once you can recognise the pattern, you stop looking for someone to blame and start looking for the loop — and for the delay inside it, which is usually where the surprise comes from.
A quick fix eases the symptom, then quietly makes it worse after a delay.
+ moves the same way− moves the opposite way|| delayR reinforcing loopB balancing loop
Play the story link by link
Step through the loop to see how the pattern unfolds over time.
Method source: Peter Senge, The Fifth Discipline (1990); causal loop notation after Jay Forrester